高原东侧突发性大暴雨过程中螺旋度的诊断分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

慕建利  李泽椿  寿绍文  杜继稳 《气象科学》2009,29(2):181-186

利用MM5模式模拟输出结果,对2002年6月8-9日发生在陕西省和四川北部的一次突发性大暴雨过程进行了螺旋度诊断分析.结果表明:暴雨区附近总存在一对紧邻的大小(低层)或正负(中层)螺旋度中心,低层螺旋度正值区强度远大于中高层螺旋度正负值区,对流层中层正负中心的轴线随高度呈逆时针旋转,相应的垂直结构是一对正负相伴的螺旋度柱.当暴雨区东侧正螺旋度突然向高层伸展,西侧伴有负螺旋度发展,且两中心间等值线变密集时,暴雨开始,大小(正负)螺旋度最强及其间等值线最紧密时,暴雨达到最强盛时期,而且暴雨就发生在两螺旋度之间偏大值中心的等值线密集区.进一步分析表明:螺旋度发生发展的主要贡献者是水平速度和水平速度的垂直切变.  相似文献   

“海棠”台风(2005)暴雨过程数值模拟及位涡分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

郭煜  寿绍文  岳彩军 《气象与减灾研究》2010,33(2):26-34

采用WRF模式对2005年"海棠"台风登陆福建省前后24h内所造成的降水过程进行了数值模拟,在此基础上,利用模式输出结果,借助位涡理论分析位涡与台风低压流场及降水的关系,并结合对风场、相当位温、相对湿度等诊断量的分布特征分析,探讨了台风强降水的发展和维持机制。结果表明,310K等熵面上高位涡发展演变较好反映了台风低压系统路径移动以及强度变化的过程。暴雨中心主要出现在位涡大值区及其偏东北方向,且位涡气块回旋少动,与暴雨的发展维持密切相关。高位涡区主要位于等熵面坡度和梯度最大处,当等熵面上下贯通,对流层高层的高位涡沿等熵面下传,形成位涡柱时,有利于暴雨增幅。台风环流内水汽充足,上升运动强烈,也有助于此次台风降水强度持续强大。  相似文献   

石门烤烟产区人工防雹技术分析     

袁首  张喜英  高伟 《高原山地气象研究》2009,(Z1)

通过分析历史资料,总结出石门山区冰雹发源地及移动路线,并确定了最佳防雹作业点.分析2008年以来的防雹作业资料以及部分降雹实况资料,总结出有效判别石门烤烟产区冰雹云的3个定量指标:组合反射率55dBZ、垂直累计液态含水量45 kg/m2、回波顶高11km以及现场观测定性指标.实践证明,定量指标与现场观测定性指标相结合,提早识别冰雹云是防雹作业成功的关键.  相似文献   

西北东部一次大暴雨数值模拟及中尺度分析   总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1  

任余龙  寿绍文 《气象科学》2008,28(3):316-321

2005年7月1-2日,西北东部出现一次造成严重灾害的大暴雨天气过程(本文简称为"050702"暴雨),利用NCEP(1°×1°)资料分析表明,副热带高压边缘偏南和西南气流北上,与西北冷空气在西北区东部形成辐合区造成了此次暴雨的发生,此次暴雨的水汽来源于中国南海和孟加拉湾.本文用非静力中尺度模式MM5V3.6成功模拟出此次过程,对暴雨中心冷暖平流、辐合层及水汽通量散度等暴雨因子的中尺度结构与强降水的关系进行了研究.结果表明:(1)降水强度和对流层中层冷平流有很好的相关,随着冷平流的增强,降水强度也迅速增大;暖平流对降水强度起到维持的作用;(2)在降水达最强时段,对流层中出现低层强辐合,高层辐散的结构;(3)在降水达最强时段,对流层中低层水汽辐合的达到最强,表明水汽通量散度场和降水有较好的对应关系.  相似文献   

A statistical framework of data fusion for spatial prediction of categorical variables   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Guofeng Cao  Eun-hye Yoo  Shaowen Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(7):1785-1799

With rapid advances of geospatial technologies, the amount of spatial data has been increasing exponentially over the past few decades. Usually collected by diverse source providers, the available spatial data tend to be fragmented by a large variety of data heterogeneities, which highlights the need of sound methods capable of efficiently fusing the diverse and incompatible spatial information. Within the context of spatial prediction of categorical variables, this paper describes a statistical framework for integrating and drawing inferences from a collection of spatially correlated variables while accounting for data heterogeneities and complex spatial dependencies. In this framework, we discuss the spatial prediction of categorical variables in the paradigm of latent random fields, and represent each spatial variable via spatial covariance functions, which define two-point similarities or dependencies of spatially correlated variables. The representation of spatial covariance functions derived from different spatial variables is independent of heterogeneous characteristics and can be combined in a straightforward fashion. Therefore it provides a unified and flexible representation of heterogeneous spatial variables in spatial analysis while accounting for complex spatial dependencies. We show that in the spatial prediction of categorical variables, the sought-after class occurrence probability at a target location can be formulated as a multinomial logistic function of spatial covariances of spatial variables between the target and sampled locations. Group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator is adopted for parameter estimation, which prevents the model from over-fitting, and simultaneously selects an optimal subset of important information (variables). Synthetic and real case studies are provided to illustrate the introduced concepts, and showcase the advantages of the proposed statistical framework.  相似文献   

水库地震监测与预测技术研究项目实施情况     

李敬  刘少文  李志军  赖细华  朱科平 《华南地震》2014,(3):109-114

介绍了"水库地震监测与预测技术研究"项目在广东河源新丰江水库库区详细的实施情况,包括观测场址的勘选、台基测试、台站建设、仪器安装、数据处理等工作,总结了项目成功实施的经验。  相似文献   

安徽升金湖国家级自然保护区水鸟生境适宜性变化   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

杨李  董斌  汪庆  盛书薇  韩文妍  赵俊  程明伟  杨少文 《湖泊科学》2015,27(6):1027-1034

水鸟是湿地生态系统健康的指示生物,人类活动对其影响日益严重.研究自然保护区内的水鸟生境适宜性变化可以为湿地恢复提供帮助.通过层次分析法确定水鸟生境影响因子的权重,建立生境适宜性指数模型,根据TM遥感影像图和相关数据计算出安徽省升金湖国家级自然保护区1986-2011年5个年份的水鸟生境适宜指数,并结合GIS空间分析生成的水鸟生境适宜性分级图,分析升金湖建立保护区后水鸟生境适宜性变化.结果表明:升金湖地区在1986年建保护区后的几年间水鸟生境适宜性相对平稳,但是仍然有较为明显的下降;1990s后期,该地区水鸟生境适宜性开始显著恶化,一直持续到2000年之后才有小幅度的回升.水鸟生境适宜性最好的区域由片状分散逐渐转变成小范围聚集,适宜区域也在由实验区和缓冲区向核心区迁移的过程中显著缩减.本文还讨论了在研究中存在的不足,并提出一些恢复水鸟生境的建议.  相似文献   

The ecological distributions of N, P utilizing bacteria and heterotrophic bacteria in the moderate hypoxia zone of the Changjiang Estuary   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Jingjing Liu  Ping Du  Jiangning Zeng  Quanzhen Chen  Lu Shou  Yibo Liao  Zhibing Jiang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2013,12(4):589-598

The distributions of N utilizing bacteria (denitrifying bacteria and ammonifying bacteria), P utilizing bacteria (organic phosphobacteria and inorganic phosphobacteria) and heterotrophic bacteria in the Changjiang Estuary, and the roles of main environmental factors in distributing bacteria, are explored with observations from two cruises in June and August 2006. Comparisons between the two important periods of initial hypoxia phase (June) and developed hypoxia phase (August) show differences in both bacterial distributions and the associated main environmental factors. First, the primary group of ammonifying bacteria has larger magnitude with spatial maximum value in the hypoxic stations related to sediment in August. The phosphobacterial abundance and detection rates in August are much lower than those in June, but the denitrifying bacterial abundance becomes greater in August. However, the difference of heterotrophic bacterial abundance between June and August is not obvious. Second, main environmental factors influencing bacteria vary from initial hypoxia phase to developed hypoxia phase. Two parameters (salinity and NO₃ ^?) in surface water and five environmental parameters (pH, salinity, PO₄ ^3?, NO₃ ^? and temperature) in bottom water and surface sediment play major roles in the bacterial abundance in June, while different parameter combinations (salinity and PO₄ ^?) in surface water and different parameter combinations (DO, DOC, NO₃ ^?, PO₄ ^3? and pH) in bottom water and surface sediment play major roles in August. Moreover, the bottom bacteria distributions in area south of 31°N are related to the position of the Taiwan Warm Current in June. The bacterial abundance and distribution may respond to the environmental change in the hypoxia processes of initial phase and developed phase. During the hypoxia processes, the whole structure of bacterial functional groups probably turns to different states, causing the recycling of nutrient regeneration and aggravating hypoxia regionally.  相似文献   

佘山地震台防雷技术研究与应用     

钟卫星  寿海涛  姚保华  张欢  沈卫东  朱国豪 《地震地磁观测与研究》2009,30(4):103-109

在详细分析雷电灾害特征的基础上,阐述了防雷工作的主要技术手段。并针对地震台站的构成特点,研究了台站综合防雷系统的设计方法和技术措施。同时,以余山地震台为例,具体说明了防雷措施的应用方法及应用效果。  相似文献   

Decentralized robust control of building structures under seismic excitations     

Tian‐Wei Ma  Ning‐Shou Xu  Yu Tang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(1):121-140

Many of the control algorithms proposed for structures subjected to seismic excitations are based on a centralized design philosophy, such as the linear quadratic regulator (LQR) design. The information of all the states of the system is usually required in these methods to determine the control command. For applications involving large‐scale systems, it may be more convenient to design decentralized controllers that depend only on the information of the local states for control command calculation. In this study, a nonlinear decentralized robust control algorithm is proposed. The structural system is decomposed into several artificially uncoupled subsystems. The interconnections between adjacent subsystems are treated as uncertain but bounded disturbances to the subsystems. The controller associated with one subsystem determines the control command based only on the states of the local subsystem. Numerical examples of linear and nonlinear structural models are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed controller. The traditional LQR design is used as a baseline for comparison. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献